80 percent of all the building on the greenbelt will be in and around Royton
The physical scale of land mass isn’t the only important factor in analyzing the greenbelt allocations. The distribution of plot allocations is also an important consideration due to the impact on local infrastructure.
By referring to the Greater Manchester’s Plan for Homes, Jobs and the Environment (pp. 242–272) and the concept plans for Beal Valley, Broadbent Moss and Cowlishaw (both of which are housed on this website under “Plans”) it is possible to determine precisely how many housing units are allocated to each ward. By considering the locality of the allocations, we see that Royton’s allocations account for about one third of all the allocation plots in the borough.
This doesn't tell the full story, however. Many of the allocations lie on the Royton border (such as Beal Valley, Broadbent Moss and Cowlishaw) which will invariably have an impact on Royton’s infrastructure. In fact, by considering those allocations that transgress Royton’s border along with those allocations within Royton we see they account for 3,250 of the 4,050 plots—80 percent of all of Oldham MB’s greenbelt plots.
Obviously, the location of these new builds will have a significant effect on the local population size, which will in turn impact on local infrastructure and public services. The table below compares the proportion of allocation plots per district with the district household numbers as they stood at the 2011 census (p. 7).
The distribution of plots is highly disproportionate when you take into account the existing household numbers, with Royton accounting for 35 percent of the total share of the plots but only 10 percent of all households across Oldham. This would increase Royton’s population by approximately 16 percent over a relatively short period. It is extremely doubtful Royton could absorb such an expansion without a proportionate up-scaling in infrastructure and public services.
nb. Chadderton's plots have been omitted because Chadderton Fold is part of the cross-border Stakehill development and it is not possible to isolate the development in this region. It is also possible Chadderton Fold will not host any housing at all and could just be turned into warehousing.
A complete ward-level breakdown can be viewed here.